From the JoeBurnsBlog

Hey, we have a normal real estate market.  Final closing numbers for Marin County real estate sales in December and 4^th quarter 2009 show a very stable and consistent market.  Volume is where it should be and prices held steady for the most part.

Now, for those who expect an immediate financial return on their personal residence, the Marin market may still seem depressed.  There are still too many real estate agents in the market so it may seem that business is slow, but with the highest volume in over 2 yrs and 30% higher than last year, the fourth quarter of 2009 was quite normal.

As you know, I use MLS Average Price and Price Per SF statistics.  Yeah, I know, they don't tell the whole story, but for market comparisons I think they are adequate for the time and effort.   The total Marin market in December 2009 closed 220 Single Family Residences (SFR)/Condo at $881k average price and $428 average price/sf.   This was up slightly from November 2009 and fairly consistent with the past 3 mos average.  The Q4'09 total was 663 units at $870k and $422/sf compared to Q4'08 at 456 units, $875k and $434/sf.   The difference in volume between 08 and 09 was completely SFR; condo sales for both quarters were similar. 

Comparing Q3'09 to Q4'09, single family average pricing in 4^thquarter was up in Sausalito($1.355m), Mill Valley($1.168m), Tiburon/Belvedere($2.664m) and San Rafael($826k); and down in Corte Madera/Larkspur($1.101m), Ross Valley/Fairfax($1.157m) and Novato($641k). 

Contact me directly for a more precise breakdown of each community and its pricing history.

Twenty Ten seems to be off to a very slow start of what has been an invigorated market.  I believe the next two months will give us a great snap shot of what is in store for this year.  After 10 yrs of steep inclines and 2 years of steep declines we have become accustom to volatile pricing.  However, I would be perfectly happy with modest volume and -5% to 5% value increase. 

Average home prices for all of Marin County were down slightly in October 2009, from the previous month.  October average was $883,000 on 225 units and an average price/sf of $417, for all of Marin County, both single family residences and condominiums.   The average price was down 5.5% from the $934,000 of October 2008; price/sf down 7% year-over-year.

Sausalito, Mill Valley, Corte Madera and Larkspur pricing was up considerably in October from the prior quarter in single family residence sales.  Ross Valley was up just slightly in average sales price, yet down in price/sf, while San Rafael was up in both categories and Novato was relatively flat.  Volume across the board was up in October over any month this summer.  The overall condo market for Marin County was down slightly from September in average pricing, $376,000 from $386,000.

For a specific breakdown of all Marin County communities, contact me at the information below.

My mid-month trend report for October, 2009 is a little alarming to theory that we have bottomed out on pricing.  Using Bareis MLS stats as my source, Oct 1-15 shows the entire sales volume of Marin County Real Estate for both Single Family Residences and Condominiums at 93 sold units.  This is on par with Sept mid-month volume of 92 and August mid-month of 91. 

The concern is what is currently showing as average price and price per square foot(value).  As you know in past posts, I use average pricing as opposed to median pricing as it is easier determined in our system and I support the use of price per square foot as a market barometer (but not used as a value indicator on a particular property).  PRICING is just that, the average money spent, but applying an additional modifier helps determine VALUE.  If I had more expertise and time, I would breakdown my modifiers into a matrix of bedroom/bath size, sf, lot sf and parking, then apply those to the pricing to determine what average values are actually doing.  But, I'm a simpleton, so I stop at just tracking price per sf.

The Average Sold Price for Marin County, Oct 1-15, is $691k, this is down 23% from the mid-September price of $898k.  The Price/Sf for mid-October is $405/sf, down 8% from mid-Sept $437/sf.  How the month ends has not been too much different than the mid-month averages in prior months, so October is on pace to have a large decline in price and value, but a volume pace of the prior few months. 

My September figures from MLS paint a different picture than what was reported in our local press.  MLS only considers properties traded on the open market. The media uses a source that includes all recordings. Though complete, these additional sales are too often skewed because they are not a reflection of free market trades.  Anyway, as my numbers showed an increase in average price and value in September, October's pace is back to July and August's numbers.

If you're still reading this blog and have any specific questions about the stats, please don't hesitate to comment of contact me.

I have read a lot of blogs about the next phase of mortgage delinquencies.  Jeff from Lancaster, PA does a great job in illustrating.

Twelve properties closed escrow in Sausalito, CA in August according to Bareis.

Of the nine residences sold, 5 were condominiums averaging $683,000 and $411/sf.  Four were single-family residences averaging $1,195,000 and $526/sf. Two floating homes closed averaging $940,000 and $619/sf and one multi-family (2-units) residence at $1,285,000, $513/sf.

For closing information on any of these Sausalito, CA properties, please call me at 415.450.8855.

Contrary to what the local media may report in the coming days, the Marin Real Estate Market is still down.   Using Bareis as my source, I have compiled month-to-month statistics for 7 different geographical markets in Marin County.   Most end of the month reports for real estate statistics only include number of sales and Average sales price.  I go a few steps further and track the Price per Square Foot and also track what new listings in the month are averaging.

(DISCLAIMER - I don't believe Price per Square Foot should be used as a pricing technique for a single property.  It is a great tool for analyzing markets over a period of time, but agents fall prey to its simplification and try to apply to a sole property.)

My results for Single Family property sales in Marin County for the month of August, 2009 are complete and I'm sure they will vary from what the local media will report.  Here we go...

In Mill Valley, there were 23 sales in August UP from the 22 in July; the Average sales price was slightly down at $925,000 from $963,000 in July; the Price/SF fell to $443 from $556.  A substantial drop when you consider there were 23 units of SFR only. 

In San Rafael the numbers are 39 sales in August, up from 33 in July, Average $846,000 in August up from $793,000 in July; however in Price per Square Foot the number in August was $397 DOWN from $406 in July.

In Novato, Average for August was $705,000 up from July's $632, however Price/SF went down to $302 from $304.

The numbers are consistent throughout Marin - the Average sales price is up and the Price/SF is down.

What this tells us is clear the VALUE of real estate is still declining.  If we had just stopped at the Average calculations, then it would appear prices are headed up, but if we take the additional step of analyzing what the consumer is getting for those prices, we see that prices are down.   Now, the discussion to be had is WHY are Averages up?  My assumption is that the current market favors move up buyers.  The challenges in lending and the unemployment picture usually affects first time and lower markets more than the mid market.  The stock market soared in August, again usually a number that positively affects the more experienced home buyer. 

What are you seeing in your markets?   Do you consider Price/SF in your market analysis?