From the JoeBurnsBlog

Median Pricing Reports Tell Us Nothing About VALUES

Reporting just median or average home sales is a disservice to the reader because those numbers don't provide the information the reader is seeking.   People want to know the AVERAGE VALUE of properties, not the average price.  The entire purpose of all these real estate statistics is to let the person know if VALUES are going up or down

I remember once looking at some old San Francisco newspapers and there were articles on the sales of real estate for a period of time, but they were all totals, like, "last quarter SF homes sold totaled $1,500,000."  I couldn't find average price per property anywhere.  I imagine at some point in history someone said, "Hey, we should divide the total real estate sold by the number of properties sold, so we really know what values are doing."  And hence, the Average Price was born.

Fast forward to 2009, where home prices vary greatly; in our community for example from $299,000 for a 1bd condo to $28,500,000 for bay front estate on Belvedere Island.   Do we really want use a median or average of those two homes to determine current real estate values in Marin County?  I would say not. 

Price and Value are Different Animals.  Value is the price of a product. Without qualifying the product, you're only reporting half the equation.  What people really want to know is how much home does that median or average price buy.  For that, we need to add another qualifier.   

I have found the easiest additional qualifier is price per square foot. This is by far not the most accurate for determining values, but it is a quick and easy step in the right direction.  A more informative approach would be to do a cost per square foot in each bed/bath category.  Then maybe add in average lots sizes and you are now seeing what the average price will purchase as far as product. 

Currently, many real estate economists agree that the $8000 tax credit and low conforming loan rates are having a positive effect on the market.   I would imagine the $8k tax credit is a great motivator for the purchaser of a $299,000 condo, but not so much for the purchaser of a $20 million estate.  So, more homes in the lower price bracket are selling, bringing down the median price.  What if however, that declining price was buying much smaller homes than the previous period?  Then, in reality prices would be falling, but value of the real estate would be increasing.  And, even if they aren't opposing, the percentage of incline or decline of median price vs price per sf will tell you something as well. 

 

If you are providing market stats on your blog sites, may I respectively suggest taking those stats a step further and include an additional qualifier to help the reader see what is really happening to real estate VALUES.  If enough of us explain the market with a little more detail, maybe the media will catch on. 

 

If I can provide more information about Marin County real estate and lifestyle opportunities, please call me at (415)450.8855 or email me at JoeBurnsMail@gmail.com.

2 commentsJoe Burns • October 24 2009 03:45PM

The Home I Would Love To Tell You About, but Can't.

I saw the most amazing home today on our Marin County Broker Tour.   Obviously, not my listing and not one within my brokerage.  However, I believe this is one of the best deals in our area.  Unfortunately, I can't tell you where it is, how much or why it is so fantastic.  The listing agent won't let me.  Am I missing something here? 

Without getting into too many details, after I walked the grounds, saw the boat dock, the numerous bathrooms and the... wait, I'm not permitted to tell you more.  You see, after my tour I was chatting with the agent and agreeing that this truly is a great opportunity.  It is in a price range that isn't necessarily active, but a deal none the less.  I offered, "You know I have this little blog that I would love to post your listing on, give it some exposure."   She quickly said, "No.  I have a blog too."   Well OK then, you got all the bases covered.  So, why did you just beg my partner and me to bring our client and brag about the x% sell-side? 

For the record, if any agent wants to advertise my listing on their website, call me.  Unless you're name also appears on the DRE Revocation list, I'm ok with it. 

I guess all the more incentive to bring a buyer - the best deals are the ones most secretive. 

What's your policy? 

 

If I can provide more information about Marin County real estate and lifestyle opportunities, please call me at (415)450.8855 or email me at JoeBurnsMail@gmail.com.

48 commentsJoe Burns • September 16 2009 03:42PM

Please Remove Your Shoes!!

How do you feel about the 'Take Your Shoes Off Please' sign at open houses?  Personally, I'm not a big fan of exposing my socks to the fungi and disease others may be kicking around.

It happened to me again today on tour, I approached this $675k home in Mill Valley, CA, (where the median price is nearly double this list price) and found a small sign at the entry that said, "please remove you shoes".  A couple things come to mind, 'Is the flooring not adequate for walking?' or 'Is this a signal that the owner doesn't plan to clean the carpets upon moving out?'

I'm not a total idiot, I understand some people have customs that require no shoes in the house and if I was there for dinner and a movie, I may have a different opinion; but I was there to preview the home, 16 minutes tops.  I already wiped my feet on the entry mat and checked for dog... stuff, I'll even tiptoe, but please don't make me bend over, untie my shoes, and walk around in sweaty socks with my slacks cuffs dragging. It's demeaning. 

Well, I drove this far and found a rare parking spot, might as well have a look, shoes off here I come... WOOD FLOORS?  Are you kidding me?  Oh, there is some carpet over there, better hop on it to clean my socks from the dusty Pergo.  I peeked out into the lovely backyard, which was the only real value point of the home, but I couldn't go out there because my shoes were back at the front door, cooling off. 

I make my way back to the entry, dance in place to tie each Bostonian, start to leave when the agent asks, 'any questions'?   "Yeah", I said, "where is the laundry room"?  "Oh, it's in a separate room out back, near the hot tub". 

So a potential $160 carpet cleaning bill is keeping me from seeing the most intriguing aspect of this below average little house?  Nice.

One more thing she added, "If you have clients, showings are appointment only, with me".  How inaccessible and belittling can we make this thing?  Buyer, not only are you not capable of wiping your shoes off properly, but we don't even trust you or your agent to be here alone. 

In today's competitive market, sellers need to make their homes accessible and comfortable. The object is to get as many people in the door as possible and keep them in there as long as possible.  And, if they feel like it, they will take their shoes off on their own.
(Yeah, the little doctor socks work well, but still let's keep the yards and garage as accessible as possible.)

 

If I can provide more information about Marin County real estate and lifestyle opportunities, please call me at (415)450.8855 or email me at JoeBurnsMail@gmail.com.

7 commentsJoe Burns • September 09 2009 04:27PM