From the JoeBurnsBlog: September 2009

I remember that April morning this past spring when I had other plans and didn't get to partake in my annual ritual of camping in front of the TV to watch the NFL draft.  However, though I wasn't watching I was quickly made aware by friends and later by news media that Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis somehow passed on the incredible Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech and instead drafted potential 2^nd rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey.  "What an Idiot."  "The old man has totally lost it now."  (giggle, giggle from the Raider-haters), "He is single-handedly ruining that organization."  

So where are those snickerers now?  Heyward-Bey isn't Arnez Battle yet, but at least he is on the team and contributing.  Crabtree may be good someday, but I think Al knew he was a head case and a young vulnerable team does not need that challenge.  Good draft call.

These are the same detractors that look for every Al Davis news story to try to discredit the passionate leader of the most loved and hated sports team ever.  Yeah, Al Davis is old, makes old-school decisions, doesn't get along with most people really well and is probably 3 years past his optimum retirement age.  BUT, the guy does not deserve the constant ridicule he receives.

Another Davis move that caused a stir - drafting Sebastian Janikowski in first round.  Unheard of... you never draft a kicker #1.  Stupid?   Seabass regularly leads, or in top 2, the NFL in touchbacks and longest FGs made. His percentage is above average and his overall scoring is pretty good considering the team's lack of offense.  This is the kind of kicker other teams would trade a number one pick, why not just pick him number one?

Hiring and firing Lane Kiffin.  Yep, good move on both parts. Lane is a bright coaching star, with long-term upside - a good hire.  He was clearly too immature for prime time, something he proved the minute he got to Tennessee - a good fire.

Same with Jon Gruden, great hire, but most Raider fans were frustrated with Gruden's timid play calling and he decimated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers AFTER he won the Super Bowl with Tony Dungy's team.

Norv Turner... you can have him, I think he is a great O-coordinator, but terrible head coach and another good hire; good fire. 

Mike Shanahan - good hire, bad fire, big mistake, should have found a way to keep this guy.  Though he didn't do much without Elway, he is a quality football coach.

Al Davis is also known for taking washed up players and getting a little more out of them. .. Jim Plunkett and Todd Christiansen.  He has given more minorities top positions than any other coach...Art Shell, Tom Flores, Amy Trask.

I admit, he is too involved in the daily operation of the team, considering his age, style and the transiency that free agency has created he just can't be the wise ol' owl swooping over practices and pre game exercises.   BUT, that is what you get with a guy who's been a part of the team for nearly 50 yrs, a Hall of Famer, and the guy behind the money behind the team. 

AND, he has done most of this in the single worst sports market in the country. Oakland sucks. It is a terrible place, the leaders are sporting-event illiterates, the police spokesman gets more airtime discussing shootings than the coaching staff does, the local media has always coddled the Giants and Niners, while leaving the A's on ledge and hating the Raiders for their ‘screw you media' attitude, the A's want out bad and the Warriors can't win a pickup game at the YMCA.   I couldn't blame Al when he moved to LA; my family left the East Bay around the same time, it sucks.

At the time of this blog, the Raiders are 1-1 and headed to a probable 6-10, 7-9 season.  Too bad, because the die-hard fans deserve more, but we continue to be Raider fans (even if we have to hide our support) because we DO have Al Davis and his willingness to step out of the box to make HIS team better. 

A $2,000,000 beautiful Larkspur, Ca home could be yours for just $150.  The 3^rd Annual Marin Dream House Raffle will be held February 20, 2010, but before then there are three Early Bird Drawings giving away nearly $110,000 cash.  The winner of the Grand Prize in February could accept the beautiful home described below, or settle for the $1.6 million cash prize.   Hmmm... choices, choices, choices.                 

Imagine living in this brand new Marin County dream home overlooking the San Francisco Bay.  The brand new, 3,000 square foot home, has 3 bedrooms and 3 baths, is surrounded by open space, shoreline and parkland - all on 1/4 acre.  Located in Larkspur, CA, it is within 15 minutes of San Francisco.  Nearby are the Marin Headlands, Muir Woods, Mt. Tamalpais, and the Larkspur Ferry.

For more information on purchasing raffle tickets for go to the Marin Dream House Raffle website at www.marinraffle.com  .  Purchase before October 2, 2009 to qualify for the first Early Bird Drawing on October 14.

Marin Dream House Raffle is a project by Community Action Marin, the County's largest and oldest social services non-profit. The money raised by the Marin Raffle supports the people of Marin. www.camarin.org

I saw the most amazing home today on our Marin County Broker Tour.   Obviously, not my listing and not one within my brokerage.  However, I believe this is one of the best deals in our area.  Unfortunately, I can't tell you where it is, how much or why it is so fantastic.  The listing agent won't let me.  Am I missing something here? 

Without getting into too many details, after I walked the grounds, saw the boat dock, the numerous bathrooms and the... wait, I'm not permitted to tell you more.  You see, after my tour I was chatting with the agent and agreeing that this truly is a great opportunity.  It is in a price range that isn't necessarily active, but a deal none the less.  I offered, "You know I have this little blog that I would love to post your listing on, give it some exposure."   She quickly said, "No.  I have a blog too."   Well OK then, you got all the bases covered.  So, why did you just beg my partner and me to bring our client and brag about the x% sell-side? 

For the record, if any agent wants to advertise my listing on their website, call me.  Unless you're name also appears on the DRE Revocation list, I'm ok with it. 

I guess all the more incentive to bring a buyer - the best deals are the ones most secretive. 

What's your policy? 

In a landslide victory, the San Francisco Ferry system demolished the San Francisco Giants on Saturday evening.

My buddy, we'll call him Rex, called me Saturday morning with a pair of tickets to the Giants/Dodgers game that evening at AT&T Park.  By mid-day I was able to confirm with the family that I could attend and Rex and I discussed our travel plans.  He was coming down from Napa, me from Sausalito.  Drive across the Golden Gate and park... take San Rafael Bridge to East Bay and BART over... or take the Giants Ferry out of Larkspur (from Vallejo for Rex).  We choose the latter and at 4:30pm I boarded the $16/round trip boat at the Larkspur port. 

I expected a cool ride and chilly evening, so I was complete with my thick Raider jacket (only black coat I have), jeans and wool socks.  After a rare late summer rain, the clouds broke open and the sun beat down on me sitting on the bow deck like the Dodger pitching beat down Sanchez; but more on that later.

As the ferry pulls out you get an incredible view of Mt Tamalpais, then the water view of San Quentin Prison and the San Rafael Bridge.  What really makes the ferry ride special is approaching the prettiest city in America with clouds and fog engulfing the building peaks.  I sipped my $5.50 vodka grapefruit and withstood the headwind as I sat on the front of the boat and took it all in.  As the Vallejo Ferry sped past us mid-trip, I call Rex to make sure he was still in the game, after all he had the tickets.  We arrived at the center field gate, literally 100 feet from the dock, at 5:30 pm.  You can't beat that.  First things first, let's get a beer.  $8.75!!!!   Ferry 1, Giants 0. (Oops, we had 3 beers)  Ferry 3, Giants 0.

From our ‘view' seats, (not field view, but Mt Rainer views) I noticed that the ferries stay at the dock throughout the game.  On the return trip I learned that the boat bartender is able to watch the game that way.  Back at AT&T Park, the food/beverage servers move at a snail's pace and seem unconcerned that the wait to purchase $7 worth of garlic fries is one inning, minimum.  Ferry 4, Giants 0.

Only two things turned out to be slower than the F&B service, the Giants bats and Dodger pitcher Vincente Padilla's change up. (so slow that the gun doesn't post the speed)   The Giants made the Dodgers look like World Series hopefuls.  Jonathan Sanchez nibbled on the wrong side of the strike zone with each batter and his supporting defense couldn't save him when he did finally throw a strike.  Dodgers won handedly.   Ferry 5, Giants 0.

The ferry leaves ½ hour after the final pitch, which is plenty of time to get down the ramp to the dock and onto each boat.  Rex is happy, he is a Dodger fan; Joe is not so happy.  Bar is open again, $4 beers.  Ferry 6, Giants 0.

The knock-out grand slam is the ferry ride at night.  Traveling under the lit up Bay Bridge with the City lights and Port of San Francisco in the distance reminds you of how special the Bay Area really is.  Even San Quentin at night has a regal appearance, which will make great marketing pictures when the Governor puts it up for sale.  Ferry 7, Giants 0.

There are still 3 weeks left in the season and I really hope the San Francisco Giants can pull out a playoff spot.  Win or lose, it is still baseball and everyone should enjoy a game whenever they can.  In San Francisco, I suggest taking the Giants Ferry as a great way to get more out of your experience.

Just another benefit to living in Marin County.

Twelve properties closed escrow in Sausalito, CA in August according to Bareis.

Of the nine residences sold, 5 were condominiums averaging $683,000 and $411/sf.  Four were single-family residences averaging $1,195,000 and $526/sf. Two floating homes closed averaging $940,000 and $619/sf and one multi-family (2-units) residence at $1,285,000, $513/sf.

For closing information on any of these Sausalito, CA properties, please call me at 415.450.8855.

Another wonderful benefit of living in Marin County and the exceptional Bay Area climate is free food.  We are lucky to have a garden and fruit trees bearing:  apples, Myers lemons, grapefruit, Kiwi, figs, fava beans, tomatoes, potatoes, squash and rhubarb.  Our neighbors also have an abundance of growth and we have all shared our earthly delights throughout the summer.  Just when I thought the season could be winding down, this happened.

A couple co-workers of mine went abalone diving on Wednesday.  Apparently the conditions were remarkable and they had their selection of 9-10" shells.  Colleen asked around in the office who likes abs and my hand went up so quickly I nearly strained my own abs.  Heck yeah, I'll take a few slices of that precious, garbage eating sea snail.  Well, she wasn't pawning off some slices, she was offering a whole abalone, just removed from the shell this morning.  I followed over to her house and received the mollusk in a plastic zip lock baggie, placed it next to me in the front seat, stopped and ordered two coffees at Peet's, after all my oval shaped little friend was practically alive, and pulled up to my house to drop her into our fridge.  When I open my white picket fence, what awaited me?  More tomatoes.  Man, I love this area.  Where else does someone give you fresh-that-day abalone at work, and at the same time your neighbors are leaving lycopene and Vitamin A rich fruits on your gate? 

Cioppino... gazpacho... I. running out of creative ways to use all this free food.

Marin County offers so many recreational opportunities, but I have found there is no better way to start the day than from the top of the Marin Headlands, looking East over the Golden Gate Bridge toward the rising sun.

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At an early age I was stricken with ‘wake up early' disease. It is incurable.  It has caused me to disappoint my parents, my college roommates and my wife, practically on a daily basis. You see while most people like to sleep in until 5:30 or 6 am, I naturally awake at 5. Yep, no alarm, doesn't matter if I went to bed drunk at 1am, any time of year, my eyes open at 5am.  Instead of making noise in the house and facing the wrath of four females - wife, daughter, dog and cat, I find it easier to sip my coffee in the back porch and then slip out for some recreation.

Surfing is an option, but requires a wet suit and 15 min drive. Kayaking in the morning is incredible, but transporting and setting up cuts into my time, I can't run... pretty much leaves cycling. 

At 5:30ish, 2-3x a week, I hop on my mountain bike, click on the headlight and hit the road.  As I proceed down Bridgeway in downtown Sausalito, I see the beginnings of the bike commuters to and from San Francisco. (They have backpacks and better lighting.)  As I approach the core of downtown Saus, I look for my ride partner Tony, in front of Starbucks.  From the corner of Bridgeway and Princess we get our first view of the bay waters, the City lights and the potential fog.  The confirmation of visual fog supports the resonating gong of the fog horn heard throughout town, now we know what awaits our climb up Second Street and Alexander to the base of the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Tony has a real job and needs to catch a 7:15 ferry to SF, so when he is along we turn right at Bunker Road and enter the long tunnel toward Fort Chronkhite.  I prefer continuing up Alexander, under Hwy 101, and right on to Conzelman Rd and the climb up the Marin Headlands.  By now the sun light is beginning to glow above the Eastbay hills. On fogless mornings the Eastbay towns take shape and Mt Diablo shows off her beauty on the horizon.  Upon the climb, the first glimpse of the lights on the Golden Gate Bridge always remind me of photos of the Brooklyn Bridge.  The Golden Gate is exquisite when lit (aren't we all) and I'm surprised not photographed more in the dark. 

The second good bend in the road not only offers the bridge, but the lights of the Richmond District and the rest of the City.  You can also look out to the western horizon of the Pacific Ocean and the ships lined up to enter or leave port.  Most often however, the climb up Conzelman is in thick fog, often breaking at the top and the horizon views are pillowing flows of the soaking fog. 

Turnaround, back down half-way and I catch a dirt trail at McCullough Rd which winds down to Bunker Road and Rodeo Beach.  Most often the descent on this trail is back in the fog and I keep my vocal box active by announcing my presence to any potential coyotes or, worse, big cats.  Mostly it is just cottontail bunnies scurrying back into the poison oak and berry thickets.  Across Bunker I pick up the Miwok trail which climbs over another set of hills and a lookout over Tennessee Valley.  It is here that the small valleys and peaks offer the best view of the famous fog-sunlight relationship of the West Coast.

The Old Springs trail is a rippin' single track that brings us back down into the wet fog, near sea level and Tennessee Valley Road. From here we big-ring it to Shoreline Highway, again under Hwy 101 and catch the Bay trail past the house boats on Richardson Bay.  

Enter the house at 7:10am, family is up and going and I have had one heck of start to my day.  Just another benefit of living in Marin County.

This is a an old quiz, but it got me today while reading Snap Judgement by David Adler.

A baseball bat and ball cost $1.10 in total.  The baseball bat costs $1.00 more than the ball, how much does the ball cost?

Pretty easy, unh?

How do you feel about the 'Take Your Shoes Off Please' sign at open houses?  Personally, I'm not a big fan of exposing my socks to the fungi and disease others may be kicking around.

It happened to me again today on tour, I approached this $675k home in Mill Valley, CA, (where the median price is nearly double this list price) and found a small sign at the entry that said, "please remove you shoes".  A couple things come to mind, 'Is the flooring not adequate for walking?' or 'Is this a signal that the owner doesn't plan to clean the carpets upon moving out?'

I'm not a total idiot, I understand some people have customs that require no shoes in the house and if I was there for dinner and a movie, I may have a different opinion; but I was there to preview the home, 16 minutes tops.  I already wiped my feet on the entry mat and checked for dog... stuff, I'll even tiptoe, but please don't make me bend over, untie my shoes, and walk around in sweaty socks with my slacks cuffs dragging. It's demeaning. 

Well, I drove this far and found a rare parking spot, might as well have a look, shoes off here I come... WOOD FLOORS?  Are you kidding me?  Oh, there is some carpet over there, better hop on it to clean my socks from the dusty Pergo.  I peeked out into the lovely backyard, which was the only real value point of the home, but I couldn't go out there because my shoes were back at the front door, cooling off. 

I make my way back to the entry, dance in place to tie each Bostonian, start to leave when the agent asks, 'any questions'?   "Yeah", I said, "where is the laundry room"?  "Oh, it's in a separate room out back, near the hot tub". 

So a potential $160 carpet cleaning bill is keeping me from seeing the most intriguing aspect of this below average little house?  Nice.

One more thing she added, "If you have clients, showings are appointment only, with me".  How inaccessible and belittling can we make this thing?  Buyer, not only are you not capable of wiping your shoes off properly, but we don't even trust you or your agent to be here alone. 

In today's competitive market, sellers need to make their homes accessible and comfortable. The object is to get as many people in the door as possible and keep them in there as long as possible.  And, if they feel like it, they will take their shoes off on their own.
(Yeah, the little doctor socks work well, but still let's keep the yards and garage as accessible as possible.)

Contrary to what the local media may report in the coming days, the Marin Real Estate Market is still down.   Using Bareis as my source, I have compiled month-to-month statistics for 7 different geographical markets in Marin County.   Most end of the month reports for real estate statistics only include number of sales and Average sales price.  I go a few steps further and track the Price per Square Foot and also track what new listings in the month are averaging.

(DISCLAIMER - I don't believe Price per Square Foot should be used as a pricing technique for a single property.  It is a great tool for analyzing markets over a period of time, but agents fall prey to its simplification and try to apply to a sole property.)

My results for Single Family property sales in Marin County for the month of August, 2009 are complete and I'm sure they will vary from what the local media will report.  Here we go...

In Mill Valley, there were 23 sales in August UP from the 22 in July; the Average sales price was slightly down at $925,000 from $963,000 in July; the Price/SF fell to $443 from $556.  A substantial drop when you consider there were 23 units of SFR only. 

In San Rafael the numbers are 39 sales in August, up from 33 in July, Average $846,000 in August up from $793,000 in July; however in Price per Square Foot the number in August was $397 DOWN from $406 in July.

In Novato, Average for August was $705,000 up from July's $632, however Price/SF went down to $302 from $304.

The numbers are consistent throughout Marin - the Average sales price is up and the Price/SF is down.

What this tells us is clear the VALUE of real estate is still declining.  If we had just stopped at the Average calculations, then it would appear prices are headed up, but if we take the additional step of analyzing what the consumer is getting for those prices, we see that prices are down.   Now, the discussion to be had is WHY are Averages up?  My assumption is that the current market favors move up buyers.  The challenges in lending and the unemployment picture usually affects first time and lower markets more than the mid market.  The stock market soared in August, again usually a number that positively affects the more experienced home buyer. 

What are you seeing in your markets?   Do you consider Price/SF in your market analysis?